• Thursday, 30 November 2023 00:55

• Climate

"Language of Transition: 'Unabated,' 'Phase Down,' and 'Phase Out' to Spark Intense Discussions at COP28"

As the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP28, kicks off, the phrases 'unabated,' 'phase down,' and 'phase out' are poised to ignite fervent debates among nations striving to address the urgent issue of greenhouse gas-spewing fossil fuels. While the global consensus acknowledges the imperative to transition away from fossil fuels, the specific terms and their implications are emerging as contentious points of discussion at this pivotal summit, taking place in Dubai, U.A.E., from Thursday until Dec. 12.

A primary focus of COP28 is navigating the response to the inaugural "global stocktake," a comprehensive assessment of the world's progress in achieving the goals outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. These objectives include restraining the rise in global temperatures to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with an added emphasis on efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been unequivocal in his stance, calling for a "clear and credible commitment to phase out fossil fuels on a timeframe aligning with the 1.5-degree limit." This echoes discussions from COP26 in Glasgow two years ago, where countries, including India and China, settled on "phasing down" rather than "phasing out" unabated coal power in the Glasgow Climate Pact.

The language surrounding fossil fuels has proven to be a delicate negotiation point. While G7 countries, in April, concurred on accelerating "the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels," the G20 meeting in July exposed divisions, with neither Saudi Arabia nor China agreeing to commit to phasing out unabated fossil fuels.

President-designate of COP28, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, emphasized the inevitability and essential nature of "phasing down" both the demand for and supply of all fossil fuels to align with Paris climate targets. This linguistic divergence, whether to 'phase out' or 'phase down,' reflects the varying comfort levels of nations with the extent of commitment to reducing, if not eliminating, fossil fuels.

As the global community grapples with these linguistic nuances, COP28 unfolds as a critical juncture in the collective effort to address climate change and transition toward a sustainable future. The intersection of environmental urgency and diplomatic language choices underscores the intricate nature of the challenges at hand.

"Beyond Words: Decoding the Nuances of 'Phasing Out' and 'Phasing Down' Fossil Fuels at COP28"

In the aftermath of the G20, where consensus on the phrasing surrounding fossil fuels remained elusive, Canada's environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, asserted that the dialogue on the phrase is ongoing. He emphasized the need to persist in building consensus on the critical matter of the "phase-out of unabated fossil fuels." The European Union's official stance, outlined for COP28 in October, accentuates the imperative of a global phase-out of unabated fossil fuels as part of the shift towards a climate-neutral economy in line with the 1.5-degree Celsius goal.

However, amidst the emphasis on 'phasing out' versus 'phasing down,' some experts argue that the real focus should be on establishing clear timelines for cutting fossil fuels. Ani Dasgupta, President and CEO of the World Resources Institute, emphasized the need for any reference to reducing fossil fuels to be accompanied by a definitive timeline. While the goal of phasing out oil and gas production has faced rejection, there is a broader consensus on the necessity of addressing "unabated" fossil fuels.

President-designate of COP28, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, stressed the inevitability and essential nature of phasing down all fossil fuels. Yet, the majority of his references were to "unabated fossil fuels," culminating in the vision of an energy system free of unabated fossil fuels by mid-century to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The ambiguity surrounding the term "unabated fossil fuels" complicates matters, with a general consensus that it includes oil, gas, and coal where carbon emissions aren't captured before reaching the atmosphere. However, the nuanced interpretation of "unabated" becomes a point of contention. Jennifer Allan, a researcher at Cardiff University, notes that the term is deliberately ambiguous to encourage broader agreement, but the challenge arises when countries interpret it differently, potentially leading to divergent actions under the banner of "abatement."

Abatement, in some contexts, may involve carbon capture and storage (CCS), yet even within this framework, a range of technologies exists, including some using captured carbon to produce more oil. As COP28 unfolds, the intricacies of language choices in climate negotiations become apparent, reflecting the complexities of navigating a path towards sustainable and decarbonized energy systems.

"Carbon Capture Quandary: Unraveling the Complexities of Emission Reduction Strategies at COP28"

Efforts to curb carbon emissions, particularly through carbon capture projects, are at the forefront of discussions at COP28. These projects, designed to intercept emissions at sources like smokestacks, exhibit varying effectiveness, with instances like Shell Oil's Quest project capturing only 48% of the carbon dioxide it produces. A deeper challenge lies in the fact that such projects typically focus on emissions from fossil fuel production, excluding those released during the combustion of these fuels, which demands a more costly technology known as direct air capture.

Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who not only presides over COP28 but also serves as the Group CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, a major oil producer, is deeply involved in promoting carbon capture initiatives. However, concerns have been raised, exemplified by Global Witness's calculation that it would take more than 340 years for Al Jaber's company to neutralize the carbon dioxide it is set to produce in the next six years using its existing carbon capture facilities.

Amidst these debates, the International Energy Agency issued a report challenging the reliance of oil and gas companies on "implausibly large" amounts of carbon capture as a solution to the global climate crisis. The report urges these companies to explore diversification into clean energy rather than clinging to carbon capture as a means to maintain the status quo.

As discussions unfold, questions arise about the definition of "unabated" and potential limitations on carbon capture projects. While some countries, like the EU, advocate for clarity on allowable levels of carbon capture and storage from different sectors, others, notably Saudi Arabia, resist such constraints.

In the intricate realm of emission reduction strategies, Cardiff University's Jennifer Allan predicts that the term "unabated" will likely find its way into any agreement on phasing out or phasing down fossil fuels. As the complexities of carbon capture technologies intersect with global climate negotiations, COP28 emerges as a crucial arena for navigating the path towards a more sustainable and decarbonized future.

"The Changing Landscape: Navigating Environmental Shifts – Your Weekly Guide in 'What on Earth'"

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In 'What on Earth,' we delve into the latest developments, initiatives, and discussions surrounding climate change, sustainability, and environmental conservation. From global climate negotiations to local grassroots movements, we aim to provide you with a comprehensive overview of the diverse strategies employed to tackle the pressing environmental issues of our time.

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In conclusion, "What on Earth" invites readers on a weekly journey through the dynamic landscape of environmental change. The newsletter serves as a comprehensive guide, offering insights into the diverse strategies and initiatives employed to address pressing issues such as climate change, sustainability, and environmental conservation. From global climate negotiations to local grassroots movements, the newsletter aims to keep readers informed and engaged in the ongoing efforts to navigate the challenges of a shifting environment.

Readers are encouraged to explore all the newsletters offered by CBC in the Subscription Centre, fostering thoughtful and respectful conversations. Participation is valued, and comments are moderated according to CBC's Submission Guidelines. The newsletter not only provides a platform for information sharing but also emphasizes accessibility, ensuring that products cater to all Canadians, including those with visual, hearing, motor, and cognitive challenges.

As readers join the conversation and contribute their insights, "What on Earth" becomes a hub for a community dedicated to understanding and addressing the complexities of our changing environment. Whether readers are seasoned advocates for environmental causes or newcomers exploring these issues, the newsletter stands as a guiding companion, offering a deeper understanding of the profound shifts in our environment and the collective efforts shaping a sustainable future.